The Youth Vote

There are few things in the world, that you don't need a chart to tell you. Sex is pleasurable, Mervyn Silva is a crook and Barack Obama has a large youth following.

But here's a chart anyway. The chart shows how much the Republican party has lost the youth vote to Obama compared to the other elections.

According to Andrew Gelman, this idea of a great youth voter turnout is a myth. Gelman writes,

But there was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)

So what does this mean for the Republicans? Harvard econ professor Greg Mankiw thinks that this suggests that the GOP needs to be more libertarian -- be less social conservative while maintaining it's fiscal conservatism. If that is indeed the direction GOP is going to take, I'd be much happy. It's about time.

We report, You Decide Alliance.

Fox News is now on MTV Channel one. I Just watched O’Reilly Factor, which I used to follow through Fox's site earlier. It's good to see good old American-Conservatism on TV, really. Both channels are undoubtedly partisan, one on behalf of the GOP and the other one on behalf of the UNP, GOP's local buddy.

I think that's ok, all media is biased for something. Why not have it in the open. U.S. newspapers endorses candidates, Sri Lankan ones should do the same.

Dead Man Walking

Much has been written about the death sentence of former Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein. Some say it’s a good thing, others say its not, and some others like me, are stuck somewhere in between. For now though, Saddam may still be walking, But the Saddam to a lot of people is dead; he has been for a quite some time.

The Saddam Hussein the world knew in pre-occupation Iraq was a different man from the court-house maniac that he has become, from the days of his military salutes to his one-handed shooting antics; the public persona of Saddam Hussein was one of strength, control and obedience from his people. Weather anyone would acknowledge it or not a tyrants induce a sort of admiration by at least some people of this globe if not most people. Their very existence is based on their image of respect and absolute unquestioned power. Stalin, Mao, and even Hitler are still adored by their supporters (and sometimes by non-supporters) for their god-like personas. When Saddam Hussein appeared from a rat hole in December 2003, looking like a pre-Christmas Santa clause, appearing on TV in hand cuffs and being examined by an American medic, he gave up membership of that elite club of dictators. He was no more the great Saddam, he was dead then and now we are just having the ceremony.

That said, ceremonies conducted by the US-backed Iraqi court seemed to be somewhat flawed, and genuine concerns whether or not the justice in its purest sense was served is an open question. I do think some justice was served, but I have reservations as to the way it was served - Including the invocation of the death penalty, something which I’m fundamentally opposed to. Much of the reaction from the world over seems to follow those lines, opposing the death penalty imposed on Saddam whilst upholding the fact that he was a brute.

In this vein, I read with amusement, a small box story in the front page of the Daily Mirror on Monday (Nov 6, 2006) with the title ‘Muslim leaders condemn verdict’ in which the body of the story goes on to say Alawi Moulana (Governor, W.P) has told the Mirror that the ‘entire Muslim world would rise up’ against the sentence. Obviously Mr. Maulana was unaware of the fact Iran has already come forward in support of the verdict, and called for Saddam’s execution. Its interesting that Maulana would use the term ‘Muslim world’, because the Baath Party, or should is say The Baath Arab Socialist Party which provided the political foundation for the Saddam-dictatorship was not terribly Islamic, in fact it was more fascist, in both philosophy and operation also inspired by the JVP-like Arab nationalism and European socialism. Iraq then, (contrary perhaps to the reality on the ground which we now see) was seen somewhat more secular societies in the Arab world during the Saddam regime; probably due to the fact that Saddam favored guns over religious clerics for obedience. So it’s a bit surprising to me, why the so called Muslim World would ‘rise-up’ against this decision. It must also be said, however, that conduct of Muslim leaders of this country deserves a lot of praise, and I would not exclude Mr.Maulana from this list. They seemed to have managed to attain the correct balance and not let things slip into religious fanaticism like some parts of the world. If statements like this one, and some limited action (like burning up bush-dolls and American flags) is part of what keeps things in check, then so be it.

Coming back to Saddam’s case, there has always been conspiracy theories thrown about with regard to the case it self, and the capture of Saddam. Some claim the Santa-like figure who appeared from the rat hole is an impostor and the real Saddam is either in exile or dead ( as in physically). Some others believe the court’s decision to announce the verdict was to cushion a Republican defeat in the mid-term elections that are currently under way in the US. I’m usually not so big on conspiracy theory, for I would reject both these claims.

But whatever said and done at the end of the day, a Saddam execution may have little impact on the situation in Iraq, but a GOP defeat, which is now certain in the US House of Representatives and possibly even in the Senate might have a bigger impact on the Bush policy, and therefore the lives of people in Iraq.

Deane.

Reforming the GOP

I don’t really like Republicans; Two years of Bush presidency has seen the United States falter on most things ‘American’. From the war in Iraq to spying on its citizens President Bush has done a pretty lousy job. But this isn’t about Bush, Cheney or Schwarzenegger this post is about our own Grand Old Party – the UNP.

It has been almost eight months since the loss of the last presidential elections, and the promised reforms for the party are still to be seen. From then and now the UNP has lost yet another election, lost a few key members, made a joke out of the Colombo Municipality and now the good President is poaching away more of its MPs almost at will.

Ranil Wickramasinghe, for his part seem to adopt a rather unique philosophy of problem solving - ‘Do-Nothing’; this philosophy seemed to have worked for him in varying degrees, especially in the recent leadership crisis where he seemed to have ridden the storm with only minor injuries, the victory in 2001 general election too seem to adhere to this philosophy of ‘let them strangle themselves while I do nothing’, which is an eventuality in all forms of socialist and populist administrations. But if ever the UNP has any designs of regaining power then party reforms are a necessity. These reforms should be based on objective analysis of the political atmosphere and not brought on to accommodate certain people or groups of people.

There seems to be (or was) a ‘dissident group’ within the UNP, who call for a change of leadership; Presenting Karu Jayasuriya, the current deputy leader as the replacement for Wickramasinghe. Although a fair enough substitution, I really don’t see how anyone can expect this to solve UNP’s problems. Karu is much like Ranil, a principled man with adequate skills and vision but like Wickramasinghe hardly a good orator, and his waving and clapping seems as awkward as his incumbent leader. But one thing I can agree on is there should be changes.

I would propose reforms somewhere along the lines of creating an executive chairman who would have to be elected by the members for a set period of time. The chairmen will be in charge of all party activities including appointments and nominations at all levels, fund raising, promoting party policies, election strategy, and grassroots organization. A good person for the post would be S.B. Dissanayake, the fact that he’s popular, organized, and not in parliament are definite advantages. The ‘party leader’ can be someone else who will be in charge of policy and direction of the Party, Ranil himself is a good choice for this position. Both chairmen leader and other front liners could be in a central committee where their inputs can be taken for both policy and strategy.

More immediately, the UNP should get official spokespersons for specifically for Defense and Economic issues so as to stop the mixed signals they seem to be sending, they must be having someone better than Tissa Attanayake in sirikotha, Also the debaters, especially in TV must be asked to be a bit more focused and strategic in their arguments, currently the UNPers seems to be engaged in a verbal fights with the JVP/JHU while the government politicos are sitting pretty.

The UNP must learn to focus on its strengths, rather than trying to minimize its weaknesses. It’s credited for having the better people, so much so that even the current government is almost run by former UNPers - Rohitha Bogollagama, Keheliya Rambukwella, Tyronne Fernando, Ajith Nivard Cabral combined are almost both the engine and the face of the government. But the people still on the UNP side of the fence (albeit ‘on’ the fence) seems to be hiding away for some unknown reason. They have got to come out, and get some logic and credibility going in the UNP noises. They should also de-demonize things the UNP stands for: from free-market economics, to specific policies of privatization, to their rather liberal stand on the ethnic conflict.

Finally, the UNP should take advantage of the multicultural support base. I frankly think Ranil should have run as the ‘Sri Lankan president’ because he was truly the only leader who could reach out to all communities, that was his strength - Didn’t use it. Besides, really -how many Sinhalese Buddhists with the superiority complex would vote for him any way.

What’s done is done, UNP has lost elections it should and could have won. But with the right people in the right places and with a coherent strategy coupled with the self-destructive nature of socialist-inspired governments the grand old party could be restored to its former glory. If reforms are not pushed, however, I’m afraid the UNP will remain as it is: Grand, Old and Obsolete.