Sunday, June 08, 2008

Peak Oilers -- Put your money where your mouth is

I knew the IPL was going to be a success, because lots of intelligent people were willing to invest their money in the gig. Now some people seem to think we are running out of oil and there are predictions of $200 barrel oil. So if you are one of those people, Art Carden of divisionoflabour has a great idea. He writes,
A few weeks ago, I read a round of prognostications about $150-a-barrel oil and resolved to test the theory by putting my part of our "economic stimulus" money in oil futures. After all, if the doomsayers are right and we are "running out of oil," then the price has nowhere to go but up. I haven't actually bought the contracts yet--I'll get to why not in a second--but July futures are at $138/barrel right now.

I've often said that you can tell whether prognosticators really believe what they're saying by looking at their portfolios (NB: our portfolio is very equity heavy and consists mostly of index funds; we're playing it by the book). Someone who is genuinely, completely, totally convinced that oil will be $200/barrel in December should act on their wisdom, load up on December crude oil futures (currently $137/barrel), make an absolute killing, and then use the money for whatever they want, like alternative fuel research. [link]

The whole thing here. Julian Simon would have been proud. Who's that? sigh. I don't know what they teach in schools these days. Here's a short premier.

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